What can we expect from the real estate market in 2019? | Part 1 |

Analysing comments from different experts on Spanish real estate, 2019 appears as the year of recuperation as Price increases between 4% and 6%.

The end of this year is approaching and although we had taken a look of what has happened in the sector in these year that is now ending, it is also time to address the forecasts and tasks that the market should undertake in the next 12 months.


This year, as predicted by different agents of the sector, has been that the year of the consolidation. By 2019, about to begin, the majority of property developers and experts consulted predict that it will be a consistency on the market, but also a moderation on price stabilization.




2019. This is the year

This has been the best year for the housing market since the crisis broke out and we expect that trend to continue in 2019, although in more moderate terms.


There are figures from BBVA Research, which illustrate that it is indeed a good moment. The start of the recovery of the real estate sector was something different and, on this occasion, that recovery has been supported by the good moment of the economy, when the usual was the reverse: that the construction sector propitiated the first advances in the economy after a period of contraction of the industry.


During this year the real estate sector has once again grown in all areas and demand will rise by around 10% over the previous year, which will mean almost the sale of 590,000 homes.


But, in addition to these good figures for the year that now concludes and the good prospects for 2019, other real estate agents understand that the next will be the year of the maturity of a fundamental sector for the national economy.

Spain has reached a point of maturity in which we do not expect large increases in activity, but it does consolidate or slightly improve the figures in the new construction promotion business.


This new cycle is marked by a protagonist who, in earlier times, was not so present: the client. He will continue to be the axis alongside innovation and sustainability, on which different promoters are already working on, to cover even more the needs of these future owners. There has been increasingly new offer of green, modern, smart and fully adapted properties to the new demands of the client.


What about prices?

One of the main indicators to measure the health of the real estate sector is the price of houses. By 2019, according to the experts analysed, this parameter will remain upward but in a more moderate way.


Regarding second-hand flats, according to the Real Estate Index of Fotocasa, 2018 will close with an average annual price increase of 7.8%, the highest level since 2006, when it closed with an increase of 7.7%.


"The behaviour of prices remains very uneven and in 2018 the differences between territories have been further marked, with the Community of Madrid, Catalonia and the islands leading the increases with year-on-year increases ranging between 10% in Catalonia 19,5% of Madrid, these increases contrast with the more moderate behaviour of the rest of the country and with the red numbers still registered in some regions ", explains Toribio.


The Director of Studies of Fotocasa highlights, in addition, that "although these percentage rises are reminiscent of the years of the boom, the average price of second-hand housing is still 36.7% below the maximum of those years and is to 2013 levels according to the zone, this, together with the control of financing and the stabilization towards which the market tends, distances the possibility of a real estate bubble ".

Looking ahead to next year, Fotocasa argues that this sector will continue to grow at a good pace and prices will continue their upward trend although they will stabilize.


All the forecasts indicate increases between 4% and 6%

Carlos Zamora, residential director of Knight Frank, points out that "prices are around 1,800 euros per square meter in new construction and about 1,600 euros in second hand, and by 2019 we expect the growth experienced in some cities such as Madrid and Barcelona to soften, while the recovery in other markets is consolidated".


Tinsa, which handles an increase in prices of 5%, predict that there will be a "gradual stabilization in Madrid, Barcelona and other cities with notable recent increases, and continuity of increase in their urban areas, in the rest of territories you can register possible moderate increases, "explains Rafael Gil, director of the Tinsa Studies Service.


From Aedas Homes, its CEO, David Martinez, says: "We expect and want healthy increases around 3%, 4% and 5% national average." Obviously, and due to the high heterogeneity of the market, there will be locations where they increase at a higher rate and others in which the increases will be softer, since Aedas Homes we defend a sustainable growth that makes possible a good and correct functioning of the market "


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