The one million dollar question I suppose it will be: Shall I buy my property now or wait. Well, according to the Bankinter group, the price adjustment is over and 2015 will be the year of price stabilization prior to the rally and the return of new developments.
Next year the demand for housing will exceed the figure of 400,000 homes and prices will raise an average of 4% in selective locations. During the 2015 the prices will finally more expensive by 2%. This is the analysis from Bankinter in its semi-annual housing market.
However, the company has had to revise down their forecasts. "We believe the current recovery cycle will not generate a new boom in demand for housing, but the conditions are being created so that purchases will increase throughout this year to 380,000 homes and for 2016 this number will be increased to 420.000, which It means slightly revise down their estimates published in February in which they estimated a demand for 450,000 houses in 2016. Consequently, the number of new home sales in 2015 will stand at a figure close to 50,000 new homes and pick up in 2016 to range 70,000 to 80,000 new homes. "
Price adjustment is over. 2015 will be the year prior to the rally.
The company explains that the Spanish property market continues its recovery path characterized by the increase of sales transactions and the incipient rise in prices. The improvement in employment reduced financing costs and higher attractiveness of housing investment relative to other alternatives will be catalysts in the demand. "The upturn in demand coupled with supply shortages in selected locations allow for a slight rise in prices this year, which could be extended in 2016 to more cities and reaching an average increase of 4%." And the report points out: "The price adjustment is over and 2015 will be the year of stabilization prior to the rally."
The main reasons that lead to foresee Bankinter a modest increase in prices are the moderate growth in demand and high housing stock at discounted prices. The supply of housing allocated by financial institutions and transferred to the "toxic bank" the SAREB at an average discount of 54% in the case of completed homes and 63% in construction continue causing to close the ongoing operations at these reduced reduced prices.
Awakening from its slumber.
Property development is awakening from its slumber. Housing construction will never reach the highest levels in the years of the housing bubble. However, the shortage of supply in premium areas and depletion in some areas of large cities is allowing promoter activity begins to rise from the ashes. This incipient recovery is highlighting two variables: growth of application for new building licenses and investment in construction work.
In addition, real estate returns to present investment opportunities. The Bankinter Group believes that the best alternative is the purchase of real estate assets located in locations "prime" of the big cities and resorts, with a target of net profit at around 3% and minimum investment horizon of three to five years.
If to these ingredients you add the favourable rate exchange of the Pound against the Euro and the ever increase in home prices back in Britain, we have all and each of the components required for the birth of new property developments.
I sincerely belief that although we will never have a new return to the massive property developments again we shall see a modest rise in prices very soon.
The rises have been modest but continuous.
The average price of new housing in Spain free has increased by 1.8% in the first half of 2015 and 1.4% last year, according to ST Valuation Society, which recently unveiled the Semi annual Bulletin Market corresponding to the first six months of 2015, which collects data housing in all provincial capitals and major populations of 25,000 new housing. This is the first increase since 2007.
What are the current prices?
The price of an average new house in Spain stands at 2,030 Euros per meter built, representing 182,700 Euros for a house of a typical average 90 square meters home. From its peak reached in 2002 up to now accumulats a total readjustment of 38.7%.
Madrid and Catalonia are the ones that have noticed this increase, with 4.2% and 3%, respectively. Basque Country, with 1.1%, and Aragon and Murcia, both with 1%, recorded the largest increases.
The price increase in the first six months of the year reversed the downward trend observed during 2014, when a fall of 0.4% in the second quarter, and 1.8% in the first.
To the question of should you buy now or wait, the answer is; the first will make the most money but with a higher risk. For the more conservative purchasers the percentage of loosing on their purchase is minimized, but they will make little money.
Such is life!